A high tide of 2.38 feet above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) occurred in the afternoon of October 3. Can Polyketone (PK) Materials Provide an Alternative to Polyoxymethylene (POM)? Mazzotti, F. J., M. S. Cherkiss, M. Parry, J. Beauchamp, M. Rochford, B. Smith, K. Hart, and L. A. Brandt, 2016: Large reptiles and cold temperatures: Do extreme cold spells set distributional limits for tropical reptiles in Florida? Stocker, T. F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, and P. M. Midgley, Eds. Coastal Plain's industry is mainly agriculture. Climate model simulations of future conditions project increases in both temperature and extreme precipitation. Newman, S., M. Carroll, P. Jakes, and L. Higgins, 2014: Hurricanes and wildfires: Generic characteristics of community adaptive capacity. Kozlowski, T. T., and S. G. Pallardy, 1997: Growth Control in Woody Plants. The ecological resources that people depend on for livelihoods, protection, and well-being are increasingly at risk from the impacts of climate change. Coastal communities in the Southeast are already experiencing impacts from higher temperatures, sea level rise, increased flooding, and extreme weather events.69,70,71,72 Several communities in the United States are already discussing the complexities of relocation; most are tribal and Indigenous communities.73 Some have chosen to stay in their homelands, while others have few options but to relocate (Ch. A. Whittington, and R. Paperno, 2016: Resilience of a tropical sport fish population to a severe cold event varies across five estuaries in southern Florida. By the end of the century, over one-half billion labor hours could be lost from extreme heat-related impacts (likely, medium confidence). Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, Cambridge, MA, 167 pp. However, this trend in part reflects how rural communities that experience significant population growth often get reclassified as metropolitan themselves. 14: Human Health, KM 1). EPA 800-Q-15-004. NWS, 2017: Detailed Meteorological Summary on Hurricane Irma [web page]. 13: Air Quality, KM 1). Census Bureau, 2017: County Population Totals and Components of Change: 2010-2016. The decade of the 2010s through 2017 is the warmest in all seasons for average daily minimum temperature and in winter and spring for average daily maximum temperature. Gen. Tech. Permission of the copyright owner must be obtained doi: Doyle, T. W., G. F. Girod, and M. A. With wildfire projected to increase in the Southeast,6,191 prescribed fire (the purposeful ignition of low-intensity fires in a controlled setting), remains the most effective tool for reducing wildfire risk.4,195 Department of Defense (DoD) lands represent the largest reservoirs of biodiversity and native ecosystems in the region.117 Military activities are a frequent source of wildfires, but increases in prescribed fire acres (Figure 19.19) show a corresponding decrease in wildfire ignitions for DoD.4 Climate resilience by DoD is further achieved through restoration of native longleaf pine forests that occupy a wide range of site types, including wetland and well-drained soilsthe latter leading many to characterize this forest as being drought resistant.196,197,198,199 In addition to proactive adaptation through prescribed fire, DoD has been a leader in climate strategies that include regional conservation planning, ecosystem management, endangered species recovery, and research funding. Luedeling, E., 2012: Climate change impacts on winter chill for temperate fruit and nut production: A review. McEwan, R. W., J. M. Dyer, and N. Pederson, 2011: Multiple interacting ecosystem drivers: Toward an encompassing hypothesis of oak forest dynamics across eastern North America. Enwright, N. M., K. T. Griffith, and M. J. Osland, 2016: Barriers to and opportunities for landward migration of coastal wetlands with sea-level rise. I. Aboveground net primary productivity. Long causeways with intermittent bridges to connect the mainland to these popular tourism destinations were built decades ago at only a few feet above MHHW. In fact, a recent economic study using a higher scenario (RCP8.5)11 suggests that the southern and midwestern populations are likely to suffer the largest losses from projected climate changes in the United States. Pederson, N., A. W. D'Amato, J. M. Dyer, D. R. Foster, D. Goldblum, J. L. Hart, A. E. Hessl, L. R. Iverson, S. T. Jackson, D. Martin-Benito, B. C. McCarthy, R. W. McEwan, D. J. Mladenoff, A. J. Parker, B. Shuman, and J. W. Williams, 2015: Climate remains an important driver of post-European vegetation change in the eastern United States. Understanding why businesses locate where they do helps to explain why some rural regions prosper while others languish. High-amenity rural areas typically have experienced substantial economic and population growth. Kossin, J. P., T. Hall, T. Knutson, K. E. Kunkel, R. J. Trapp, D. E. Waliser, and M. F. Wehner, 2017: Extreme Storms. Fishery, Manufacturing, and Wood products, and tourism. Vergs, A., P. D. Steinberg, M. E. Hay, A. G. B. Poore, A. H. Campbell, E. Ballesteros, K. L. Heck, D. J. Booth, M. A. Coleman, D. A. Feary, W. Figueira, T. Langlois, E. M. Marzinelli, T. Mizerek, P. J. Mumby, Y. Nakamura, M. Roughan, E. van Sebille, A. S. Gupta, D. A. Smale, F. Tomas, T. Wernberg, and S. K. Wilson, 2014: The tropicalization of temperate marine ecosystems: Climate-mediated changes in herbivory and community phase shifts. Without significant adaptation measures, these regions are projected to experience daily high tide flooding by the end of the century (likely, high confidence). Hughes, T. P., A. H. Baird, D. R. Bellwood, M. Card, S. R. Connolly, C. Folke, R. Grosberg, O. Hoegh-Guldberg, J. Historically, coastal ecosystems in the region have adjusted to sea level rise by vertical and horizontal movement across the landscape.125,129,200,201 As sea levels rise in the future, some coastal ecosystems will be submerged and converted to open water, and saltwater intrusion will allow salt-tolerant coastal ecosystems to move inland at the expense of upslope and upriver ecosystems.128,202,203,204,205,206,207,208 Where barriers are present (for example, levees and other coastal infrastructure), the potential for landward migration of natural systems will be reduced and certain coastal habitats will be lost (Ch. For example, the Louisville, Kentucky, metro government conducted an urban heat management study and installed 145,000 square feet of cool roofs as part of their goal to lessen the risk of climate change impacts.28, The transmission of vector-borne diseases, which are spread by the bite of an animal such as a mosquito or tick, is complex and depends on a number of factors, including weather and climate, vegetation, animal host populations, and human activities (Ch. 7: Ecosystems, Figure 7.4).179 Some problematic invasive species are expected to be favored by changing winters. City of Charleston, 2015: Sea level rise strategy. WebThe North Carolina Coastal Federation is working with federal, state and local leaders, economic developers, private businesses and coastal residents to create and implement In addition, land and water resources in the coastal region will support further development as long as economic activity is in balance with the capacity of these natural systems. The amount of confidence associated with the historical rate of global sea level rise is impacted by the sparsity of tide gauge records and historical proxies as well as different statistical approaches for estimating sea level change. 12: Transportation, KM 1). Implementation of these strategies has already resulted in a reduction in water consumption in the city of Atlanta, relieving strain on the water utility and increasing resilience.50. Jones, W. D., 1979: Effects of the 1978 freeze on native plants of Sonora, Mexico. Rainfall totals across the region exceeded amounts that would be expected to occur once every 1,000 years (or a less than 0.1% annual probability of occurrence), causing the Amite and Comite Rivers to surge past their banks and resulting in some 50,000 homes across the region filling with more than 18 inches of water.85 Nearly 10 times the number of homes received major flooding (18 inches or more) during this event compared to a historic 1983 flood in Baton Rouge, and the damage resulted in more than 2 million cubic yards of curbside debris from cleaning up homes (enough to fill over 600 Olympic-sized pools).86 A preceding event in northern Louisiana on March 812, 2016, caused $2.4 billion in damages (in 2017 dollars; $2.3 billion in 2015 dollars) and five casualties,84 illustrating that inland low-lying areas in the Southeast region are also vulnerable to flooding impacts. 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Many of these urban areas are rapidly growing and offer opportunities to adopt effective adaptation efforts to prevent future negative impacts of climate change. C3P, 2017: Carolinas Precipitation Patterns & Probabilities (C3P): An Atlas of Hydroclimate Extremes [web page]. Anderson, D. G., T. G. Bissett, S. J. Yerka, J. J. Recent changes in seasonal temperatures that are critical for plant development will continue to impact regionally important crops. Rising, M. Delgado, S. Mohan, D. J. Rasmussen, R. Muir-Wood, P. Wilson, M. Oppenheimer, K. Larsen, and T. Houser, 2017: Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States. Zhou, Y., and J. M. Shepherd, 2010: Atlanta's urban heat island under extreme heat conditions and potential mitigation strategies. Blum, M. D., and H. H. Roberts, 2009: Drowning of the Mississippi Delta due to insufficient sediment supply and global sea-level rise. City of Atlanta, 2017: Resilient Atlanta: Actions to build a more equitable future. Nationally, there are only five large cities that have increasing trends exceeding the national average for all aspects of heat waves (timing, frequency, intensity, and duration), and three of these cities are in the Southeast regionBirmingham, New Orleans, and Raleigh. Bernatchez, A., and L. Lapointe, 2012: Cooler temperatures favour growth of wild leek (Allium tricoccum), a deciduous forest spring ephemeral. 6: Forests, KM 1). Yates, K. K., D. G. Zawada, N. A. Smiley, and G. Tiling-Range, 2017: Divergence of seafloor elevation and sea level rise in coral reef ecosystems. Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, MA, 64 pp. Drought and extreme heat can result in tree mortality and transform the regions forested ecosystems (Ch. Cities across the Southeast are experiencing more and longer summer heat waves. The cost savings from an increased level of production economies of scale mean, for instance, that a seafood processor with sizable business volume can bulk-purchase supplies at a lower rate than a smaller-scale competitor. However, these models do not account for adaptations that may reduce estimated losses.35,64 By the end of the century, mean annual electricity costs are estimated at $3.3 billion each year under RCP8.5 (model range: $2.4 to $4.2 billion; in 2015 dollars, undiscounted) and mean $1.2 billion each year under RCP4.5 (model range $0.9 to $1.9 billion; in 2015 dollars, undiscounted).35, Rural communities tend to be vulnerable due to factors such as demography, occupations, earnings, literacy, and poverty incidence.8,9,10,250,283,284,305 Reducing the stress created by such factors can improve resilience.9,284 The availability and accessibility of planning and health services to support coping with climate-related stresses are limited in the rural Southeast.288,289. Office of Sustainability, Louisville, KY, 24 pp. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, 312 pp. Volume 9 Version 2.0: Southeastern States (Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi) . Rising sea levels and potential changes in hurricane intensity are aspects of climate change that are expected to have a tremendous effect on coastal ecosystems in the Southeast (Ch. For example, shrimping, oystering, and fishing along the coast are long-standing traditions in the coastal economy that are expected to face substantial challenges. Doney, S. C., V. J. Fabry, R. A. Feely, and J. doi: Costanza, R., R. de Groot, P. Sutton, S. van der Ploeg, S. J. Anderson, I. Kubiszewski, S. Farber, and R. K. Turner, 2014: Changes in the global value of ecosystem services. WebAs a low-lying coastal plain, major crops include rice, sugar, coffee, cocoa, coconuts, edible oils, fruit, vegetables, and tobacco. This assessment builds on the above concerns described in the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) and includes impacts to urban and rural landscapes as well as natural systems. A. Mendelssohn, 2005: Drought, snails, and large-scale die-off of southern U.S. salt marshes. WebIn the Coastal Plains region of Texas there are many job opportunities. Summer increases in dengue cases are expected across every state in the Southeast. Mayor's Office, Charleston, SC, 17 pp. Charleston experienced all-time record high tide flood occurrences in 2015 (38 days) and 2016 (50 days).52,58 By 2045, Charleston is projected to experience up to 180 high tide flood events a year.1 The City of Charleston estimated that each flood event that affects the crosstown costs $12.4 million (in 2009 dollars). Gonzalez, C. G., A. Kaswan, R. Verchick, Y. Huang, N. Jamhour, and S. Bowen, 2016: Climate Change, Resilience, and Fairness: How Nonstructural Adaptation Can Protect and Empower Socially Vulnerable Communities on the Gulf Coast. Increased access to high-quality education and workforce development programs can strengthen the labor force. To help gardeners and farmers, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has produced plant hardiness zone maps that can be used to determine which species are most likely to survive and thrive in a given location. Urban Climate Change Research Network, Columbia University, New York. Observed warming since the mid-20th century has been uneven in the Southeast region, with average daily minimum temperatures increasing three times faster than average daily maximum temperatures. doi: Cavanaugh, K. C., J. D. Parker, S. C. Cook-Patton, I. C. Feller, A. P. Williams, and J. R. Kellner, 2015: Integrating physiological threshold experiments with climate modeling to project mangrove species' range expansion. Multimodel averages of climate model simulations (CMIP3 [SRES A2] and CMIP5 [RCP8.5] higher scenarios) show that there is a greater risk of drier summers by the middle of the century in the western portion of the Southeast and in southern Florida, while wetter fall seasons are more likely in the eastern portion of the region.257. B. Claydon, T. L. Metz, A. L. Gordon, A. M. Landry, D. J. Shaver, J. Blumenthal, L. Collyer, B. J. Godley, A. McGowan, M. J. Witt, C. L. Campbell, C. J. Lagueux, T. L. Bethel, and L. Kenyon, 2017: Ecological regime shift drives declining growth rates of sea turtles throughout the West Atlantic. Without significant adaptation measures, these regions are projected to experience daily high tide flooding by the end of the century. Oxford University Press, Oxford; New York, 432 pp. California Privacy Rights The freeze-free season lengthens by more than a month, and the frequency of freezing temperatures decreases substantially.20,21. European Commission, Insight_E, Stockholm, Sweden, 77 pp. Of the $50 billion, approximately $30$35 billion accounts for wind and flood damage to a combination of residential and commercial properties, automobiles, and boatswith 80%90% of this cost felt in Florida. ), The Cherokee have been harvesting ramps, a wild onion (Allium tricoccum), in the southern Appalachians, their ancestral homelands, for thousands of years.264,265 Collecting ramps for food sustenance is only one aspect of this cultural tradition. WebAgriculture, forestry, and fishing Agriculture is concentrated on the narrow sea-level coastal plain between the Essequibo and Courantyne rivers. Population growth is generally associated with economic growth but comes with its own challenges, such as new infrastructure needs and increased demand for public services. In coming years, high-amenity and urban-adjacent rural areas that comprise North Carolinas coastal region are likely to continue to be competitive in a global economy, while more remote rural places may require additional investment to thrive. Brock, M. A., D. L. Nielsen, R. J. Shiel, J. D. Green, and J. D. Langley, 2003: Drought and aquatic community resilience: The role of eggs and seeds in sediments of temporary wetlands. High tide coastal flooding has started to inundate these low-lying roads, restricting access during certain times of the day and causing public safety concerns. 9: Oceans, KM 1). As a result, future generations can expect to experience, interact with, and potentially benefit from natural systems that are much different than those that we see today (Ch. The remaining costs would address losses in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.84 The losses could have been worse except for the fact that Florida has implemented one of the strictest building codes in the country after the destruction caused by Hurricane Andrew in 1992.111 Recent estimates using insured loss data show that implementing the Florida Building Code resulted in a 72% reduction of windstorm losses, and for every $1 in added cost to implement the building code, there is a savings of $6 in reduced losses, with the return or payback period being roughly 8 years (in 2010 dollars).111. From the first quote to the final invoice, we are dedicated to the success of contractors. The regions more temperate ecosystems include hardwood forests, spruce-fir forests, pine-dominated forests, and salt marshes. Climate trends and possible climate futures show patterns that are already impactingand are projected to further impactrural sectors, from agriculture and forestry to human health and labor productivity. Plains generally have fertile soil and are attractive to settlement as they are easy to reach, provide good roadbuilding, and have good farmland. Prior to identifying critical issues for the Southeast assessment focuses for the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4), the Chapter Lead (CL) contacted numerous professional colleagues representing various geographic areas (e.g., Florida, Louisiana, and South Carolina) for expert opinions on critical climate change related issues impacting the region, with a particular emphasis on emerging issues since the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) effort.77 Following those interviews, the CL concluded that the most pressing climate change issues to focus on for the NCA4 effort were extreme events, flooding (both from rainfall and sea level rise), wildfire, health issues, ecosystems, and adaptation actions. Moore, G. W., C. B. Edgar, J. G. Vogel, R. A. Washington-Allen, R. G. March, and R. Zehnder, 2016: Tree mortality from an exceptional drought spanning mesic to semiarid ecoregions. American Fact Finder. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington, DC, 59 pp. Sweet, W. V., R. Horton, R. E. Kopp, A. N. LeGrande, and A. Romanou, 2017: Sea Level Rise. USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), . 2: Climate, Figure 2.4). Retirement destinations like metropolitan Brunswick and Pender counties are some of the fastest-growing areas in the state, while the least populated counties continue to experience population loss. When these cities experience high tide coastal flooding due to perigean tides, the tidewater enters the storm water system, which prevents rainwater from entering storm drains and causes increased impacts from flooding. In the future, this flooding is projected to become more serious, disruptive, and costly as its frequency, depth, and inland extent grow with time (Ch. Cavanaugh, K. C., J. R. Kellner, A. J. Forde, D. S. Gruner, J. D. Parker, W. Rodriguez, and I. C. Feller, 2014: Poleward expansion of mangroves is a threshold response to decreased frequency of extreme cold events. Fu, T.-M., Y. Zheng, F. Paulot, J. Mao, and R. M. Yantosca, 2015: Positive but variable sensitivity of August surface ozone to large-scale warming in the southeast United States. Horney, J., M. Nguyen, D. Salvesen, C. Dwyer, J. Cooper, and P. Berke, 2017: Assessing the quality of rural hazard mitigation plans in the southeastern United States. Melvin, M. A., 2015: 2015 National Prescribed Fire Use Survey Report. City of Fayetteville, 2017: Arkansans Can Take Steps to Respond to Climate Change. Drummond, M. A., and T. R. Loveland, 2010: Land-use pressure and a transition to forest-cover loss in the eastern United States. Reef, R., and C. E. Lovelock, 2015: Regulation of water balance in mangroves. Engle, V. D., 2011: Estimating the provision of ecosystem services by Gulf of Mexico coastal wetlands. 2018. Since then, annual average temperatures have warmed to levels above the 1930s; the decade of the 2010s through 2017 has been warmer than any previous decade (App. What is the main industry in the coastal region of North Carolina? Rural Sociology 62 (3): 363-384. Stevens, P. W., D. A. Blewett, R. E. Boucek, J. S. Rehage, B. L. Winner, J. M. Young, J. Clemson University, Clemson, SC. For rural areas located near metropolitan areas, access to urban employment is an important cause of population retention and growth. Water Utility Climate Alliance (WUCA), Las Vegas, NV, 6 pp. However, for average daily maximum temperature, the summers of the 1930s and 1950s and the falls of the 1930s were warmer on average. Allen, C. D., A. K. Macalady, H. Chenchouni, D. Bachelet, N. McDowell, M. Vennetier, T. Kitzberger, A. Rigling, D. D. Breshears, E. H. Hogg, P. Gonzalez, R. Fensham, Z. Zhang, J. Castro, N. Demidova, J.-H. Lim, G. Allard, S. W. Running, A. Semerci, and N. Cobb, 2010: A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests. Over time, the population growth rates of metropolitan counties have increased in comparison with non-metropolitan counties. This is a large industry because the trees tend to grow faster in the Coastal Plains, and the wood is more textured. B. Maldonado, J. K., and K. Peterson, 2018: A community-based model for resettlement: Lessons from coastal Louisiana . Schnell, J. L., and M. J. Prather, 2017: Co-occurrence of extremes in surface ozone, particulate matter, and temperature over eastern North America. The Northeast Coastal non-metropolitan area includes Bertie, Camden, Chowan, Dare, Halifax, Hertford, Hyde, Martin, Northampton, Pasquotank, Perquimans, Tyrrell, Warren, and Washington counties. While there is more evidence focused on urban areas, limited research has identified higher levels of heat-related illness in rural areas.280,281 Research on occupational heat-related mortality identifies some of the Nations highest levels in southeastern states.282 Computer model simulations of heat-related reductions in labor productivity anticipate the greatest losses will occur in the Southeast.
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